Fuel Forward: The Digest’s 2019 Enhanced Multi-Slide Guide to Renewable Energy Group

Chad Stone: We believe the current low prices for biodiesel are primarily due to downward pressure on RIN prices caused by a combination of the market’s anticipation of a BTC reinstatement and the concern around small refinery exemptions for 2018 and 2019. Slide 12 shows that the current RIN prices are suppressed below the predicted level based on the historical correlation with the HOBO spread. Market prices for the lower-carbon options in our feedstock portfolio were higher than in 2018, with average spot prices up $0.04 per pound, also impacting our margins.